India's exports to grow by 7.6% to $564bn by 2030: StanChart-PwC

Global exports will almost double from $17.4 trillion to $29.7 trillion over the next decade, according to the Future of Trade 2030 report by Standard Chartered and PwC Singapore. India will be a key driver of global trade growth, with its exports projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.6 per cent to reach $564 billion by 2030.  

The report found that 38 per cent of global corporates currently do or plan to manufacture/source from India for the next five to 10 years.

The report jointly prepared by Standard Chartered and PwC Singapore is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030. The report reveals 13 global markets that will drive this growth, identifies significant corridors and trends shaping the future of global trade.

Singapore and Hong Kong are strategic corridors for India and are projected to grow at an average of 8.4 per cent and 6.6 per cent per year until 2030, respectively. The US will be the largest export corridor, accounting for 17 per cent of total exports in 2030.

The report estimates that the metals & minerals sector will have the largest share of 35 per cent in global exports with a 7.5 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Chemicals and pharmaceuticals will have a 13 per cent share in global exports, with a CAGR of 5.9 per cent, while the machinery & electricals sector will be the third-largest to contribute 11 per cent to exports, with an 8.5 per cent CAGR.

"With India poised to drive global trade growth from the forefront in the current decade, we have an obligation and responsibility to incorporate sustainable and inclusive practices to make trade more equitable," said Gaurav Bhatnagar, MD & Head, Trade & Working Capital, India & South Asia, Standard Chartered Bank.

According to the report, the major markets that will drive future trade growth with exports in 2030 are Bangladesh ($51bn), Hong Kong ($939bn), India ($564bn), Indonesia ($348bn), Kenya ($10bn), China ($5,023bn), Malaysia ($499bn), Nigeria ($112bn), Saudi Arabia ($354bn), Singapore ($687bn), South Korea ($972bn), UAE ($299bn), Vietnam ($535bn). 

India remains a key trade corridor for Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Saudia Arabia, South Korea, UAE, and Vietnam. 

The research found a significant trend towards adopting sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism. While almost 90 per cent of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a 'top three' priority for execution over the next five to 10 years. 

The report says that Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will see a ramp-up in investment flows, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they are considering new production locations in these regions in the next five to 10 years.