Southwest monsoon onset may get delayed on Kerala coast, says Skymet; here’s why

Weather forecaster Skymet has said that the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala could be delayed this year and the month of June can see prolonged hot weather.  

In a string of tweets, Jatin Singh, founder-director of Skymet, said that monsoon onset looks feeble and delayed, which would affect the sowing of key kharif crops, like Rice, maize, and cotton. 

The annual southwest monsoon starts its journey into the Indian subcontinent from the Kerala coast typically around June 1. The monsoon is vital for India, providing about 70 per cent of annual rain and impacting key crops, such as rice, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, soybeans, and peanuts. 

"Thunderstorms to start north India after 18 May. Monsoon onset looks feeble and delayed. Hot weather will continue deep into  June this year. Sowing  might also get delayed," said Singh.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not shared its forecast for monsoon onset. 

Last month, Skymet predicted that India would receive below-normal monsoon rains for 2023, which would severely affect rural incomes, consumption, and economic growth. 

Skymet had said that the monsoon rains in the June-September season will be 94 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) due to the impact of the El Niño weather pattern, linked to droughts or poor rainfall in India. 

A day later, IMD said India will likely receive normal rains during the four-month monsoon season, and that the likelihood of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are expected to counter evolving El Nino conditions. It had forecast rains at 96 per cent of the long period average. 

The IMD said there is a 35 per cent probability of monsoon being normal, 29 per cent chance of it being below normal, 22 per cent possibility of it being deficient, 11 per cent chance of monsoon being above normal, and only 3 per cent chance of it being excess. 

As per IMD’s definition, an average or normal rainfall is between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres (35 inches) for the season. Last year, monsoon rains were 106 per cent of the average, boosting food grain output in 2022-23. 

El Nino is a weather phenomenon that occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal. The warming causes changes in atmospheric patterns, leading to a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent. 

A good monsoon period can influence not just agriculture but has a positive effect on the wider economy. Sufficient rain boosts overall economic growth, helping to control food price inflation, which has recently risen and led to higher lending rates. 

Increased agricultural production could also ease export restrictions on sugar, wheat, and rice. On the other hand, drought or drought-like conditions require importing food and maintaining export restrictions. In 2009, poor rains forced India to import sugar, driving global prices to record highs.

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