Imran Khan arrest: Is Pakistan hurtling towards civil war? Here's what we know

Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's arrest and subsequent violent protests from his supporters have triggered the worst fears that the country may descend into chaos if things go out of control from here. Hours after Khan was arrested, his supporters stormed the army headquarters in Rawalpindi, entered the residence of one military officer, blocked roads and highways, and put a police vehicle on fire in Karachi.

Also, thousands of PTI supporters gathered outside the residence of the corps commander in Lahore and outside the headquarters of Frontier Corps in Peshawar - a scene not seen in years. While political protests are not uncommon in the neghbouring country, gathering outside army headquarters and taking on the military is rare.  

Reports suggest that the army had opened fire at protesters and some people had died. Ihtisham Ul Haq, a journalist, said that 18 people have been shifted to Batkhela hospital in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but it was not yet confirmed how many people were dead. 

Reacting to his tweet, some people said a civil war had started in Pakistan. Karim Wafa Al-Hussaini, a historian and author, said that rumours have circulated that "this is the start of a civil war in Pakistan". "Forces have just now opened fire on innocent civilians protesting against ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s detention," he wrote on Twitter.  

Sushant Sareen, author and senior fellow at ORF, said the next 48 hours will be critical for Pakistan. "Will there be a coup within the Army or against the govt? Will the Army split? Will Pakistan descend into civil war or chaos? Will/can the army crackdown or surrender to the mobs?"

Much of what is happening today was waiting to happen as supporters of Imran Khan are convinced that it is the army that wants their leader to be out of the race for the top post and it was this institution that brought Sharif back into power in Islamabad. Imran Khan has been making claims that the army was behind two attempts on his life. But this fight is not just between the army and Imran Khan. There are reports that the army is divided on the current power tussle with Imran Khan.

Pakistan's current army chief Asim Munir is known to have not very good relations with Imran Khan. He was picked by former army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa - the man believed to be behind the fall of Imran Khan. Bajwa removed then ISI chief Faiz Hameed, a blue-eyed boy of Imran Khan. Now, reports suggest that developments in the last few months have created two factions in the army - one favours Munir while the other wants Hameed.  

Avinash Paliwal, an author and associate professor at SOAS, said the next two days are critical for Pakistan. He said the main threat army chief Munir faces now is from dissenting corps commanders. "It'll either be a full-blown, unprecedented nationwide crackdown (& coup?), or an intra-army putsch against Munir. IK (Imran Khan) on board, or a martyr (quite probable)."

Paliwal said that it was important to note that Imran Khan's political value for those in the army who are banking on or using his populist appeal to blunt the Munir faction has just crossed the rubicon. "Now, he's better off a martyr or saint than an active politician (for both his opponents and intra-army allies alike)."

Momina, a Twitter user, shared a video in which thousands of people can be seen hitting the roads and pushing a wall. A protester can be heard saying: "Pure Pakistan me ye haalat ban chuke hai (This is not limited to one place, this is happening in all Pakistan)." Momina said if they (army/government) thought they can impose emergency or martial law and the nation would be silenced and 'handled', "they are in for a stupendous SHOCK!"

The army is in a difficult spot as it has backed a coalition that has lost public support. Imran Khan, on the other hand, has got massive backing from the people and almost all analysts suggest that he may return to power if elections were to happen today - something that the Asim Munir faction does not want.

Imran Khan's supporters are charged up and are protesting at all places of significance like outside army headquarters, high commission offices, and police stations. Experts fear that if it continues, law and order may collapse and a civil war may break out in the country - which has a history of military coups.  

Defence Expert Major General Bishamber Dayal (Retd) said Pakistan is neither a society nor a state. "It is an army-controlled and ISI-controlled state. And today, civil society has started biting back at the army of Pakistan. The country is on the brink of a civil war," he said while speaking to a news channel.

Wajahat S Khan, Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, said Pakistan has plunged into chaos. "After Imran Khan's arrest this afternoon: - Sporadic protests have targeted military installations across the country. Protestors have been shot at with live ammo. The internet has been blocked. Khan is still in custody. Senior mil/pol leaders not in Pak."

Mohd Ishaq Chowdhary, a law student, said after the arrest of Imran Khan, an unruly mob burnt major military sites. "Protestors enter(ed) many Corps Commander including GHQ Rawalpindi. Civil war in Pakistan. This is the only outcome of military intervention in the politics of Pakistan."

Amir, a tribal activist, said that Pakistan's establishment is the worst one, they have the policy of "use and throw" from day first as the country is seeing the same in Imran Khan's case. "Khan was well aware of it but still he threw the whole country into it and created a civil war in the country," he said.

Also read: Imran Khan arrest: YouTube, Twitter, Facebook suspended in parts of Pakistan

Also read: What is the Al-Qadir Trust case behind Imran Khan's arrest?