Muizzu's win to increase India's anxiety on Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region

Voters in Maldives backed President Mohamed Muizzu’s tilt towards China and away from traditional benefactor India handing his party an electoral 'supermajority' on April 22. 

The vote was seen as a crucial test for Muizzu’s plan to press ahead with closer economic cooperation with China, including building thousands of apartments on controversially reclaimed land. 

Maldives, a top luxury holiday destination thanks to its pristine white beaches and secluded resorts, has become a geopolitical hotspot in the Indian Ocean in recent years as global east-west shipping lanes pass the archipelago.

Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region

Maldives’ geographical positioning near crucial sea lanes is important for China's energy supplies. China has been leveraging its economic muscle to court successive Maldivian administrations to consolidate its influence over the island nation. 

Muizzu won last September’s presidential poll as a proxy for pro-China ex-president Abdulla Yameen. He awarded high-profile infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned companies during campaigning for the parliamentary elections.

His administration is also in the process of sending home Indian troops operating a reconnaissance aircraft gifted by New Delhi to patrol the Maldives’ vast maritime borders.

In March this year, the Muizzu government inked two military agreements with China.

According to the agreements, China pledged to provide military assistance to the Maldives at no cost. This is in stark contrast to the island nation's traditional acceptance of military assistance from India. The Maldives' Defence Ministry has yet to reveal the details of the assistance, leaving room for speculation.

Another deal was also signed by the Muizzu government concerning the Chinese 'research' vessel Xiang Yang Hong 3, which recently made its presence felt in the Maldives. This agreement could potentially impact maritime research in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), further solidifying their bilateral relations.

The vessel went to Maldives days after the Muizzu government refused to renew a hydrography agreement with India citing national security concerns and the safeguarding of sensitive information. The hydrographic survey agreement was signed on June 8, 2019, during PM Modi’s visit to the Maldives.

Beijing's robust economic ties with the Maldives, cultivated over a decade, have ensured that it remains well-positioned to advance its strategic objectives in Malé. 

According to experts, as projects led by India, such as the Greater Malé Connectivity Project, progress slowly, the allure of China's rapid infrastructure support could grow. This is particularly relevant in an election year, as substantial infrastructure investment is a widely used as political strategy in the Maldives. 

Economic coercion to seize strategic assets

China frequently faces allegations that it uses economic coercion to advance its broader objectives. The leasing of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port to Beijing for 99 years is commonly cited as evidence of this strategy. A supporter of China's giant infrastructure Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Sri Lanka became a Chinese 'debt trap' victim while enticed to accept unsustainable loans for infrastructure projects and allowing Beijing to gain strategic or military influence by seizing assets like the Hambantota Port to Beijing for 99 years in times of financial distress.

The recent engagements of Chinese 'research' vessels in the Indian Ocean region give rise to the possibility of China using data in any adversarial military situation vis-á-vis India and/or other nations in the immediate Indian Ocean neighbourhood, including the US with its military base in Diego Garcia.

Research vessels involved in scientific research can also use their instruments for naval reconnaissance, gathering intelligence on foreign military facilities and vessels operating in the vicinity.