Adani Ports shares slip ahead of Q4 results; Here are projections from Nomura & other brokerages

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) gave up and fell back in red on Tuesday ahead of its results for the period ending on March 31, 2023. The company will announce its quarterly results and dividend for the shareholders, if any, later on Tuesday.

Shares of Adani Ports dropped more than a per cent to Rs 733.50 on Tuesday, from the day's high of Rs 742.20. The scrip had settled at Rs 737.45 on Monday. The company was commanding market capitalization of close to Rs 1.6 lakh crore during the session.

Analysts expect the company to report strong growth in the net profit on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, with a robust EBITDA, which may rise more than 60 per cent. EBITDA margins are seen expanding 140-160 basis points (bps). However, the revenue may remain flat on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) comparison.

Global brokerage firm Nomura expects Adani Ports to report a consolidated revenue of Rs 4,849.6 crore, rising 26.1 per cent YoY but flat on a sequential basis. Consolidated EBITDA is seen at Rs 3,040.2 crore, up 63.6 per cent YoY and 12.7 per cent QoQ, with an EBITDA margin of 62.7 per cent, increased 143 bps YoY.

"Full-year FY23 volumes at 339 mnt were below company guidance of 350-360 mnt though overall annual profitability (EBITDA) guidance will likely be met, in our view. We expect profitability to improve, driven by improved pricing and low impact of exchange rates on forex debt," said Nomura in its report.

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Kotak Institutional Equities expects Adani Ports to report an 80 per cent YoY increase in net profit at Rs 1,842.80 crore for the Q4FY23, while sales are seen rising 30.80 per cent YoY to Rs 5,028.50 crore. EBITDA margin is seen at 63.8 per cent, up 184 basis points YoY.

"For APSEZ, we model comparable volume growth to be around low-to-mid-single digits, as it was impacted by the weakness in country-level demand. The consolidation of Gangavaram port yields a higher 15 per cent YoY growth in volumes," said Kotak in its report.

The quarter saw foreign portfolio investors (FPI) increasing their holding in the Adani group firm to a multi-quarter high, thanks to investments by Rajiv Jain-led GQG investment this past month.  Jain's US-based global equity investment firm had in March purchased 88,600,000 equity shares or 4.1 per cent stake in Adani Ports at Rs 596.20 apiece for Rs 5,282 crore.

On the contrary, Domestic institutions such as Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and mutual funds trimmed stakes in the Adani group firm during the same period, the latest shareholding pattern for the period ended on March 31, 2023, suggests.

Among other brokerage firms, ICICIdirect sees profit after tax at Rs 1,328.80 crore, up 29.80 per cent YoY. It sees revenue for the quarter at Rs 4,938.30 crore, up 28.40 per cent YoY. Ebitda is seen rising 31 per cent to Rs 3,121 crore.

Elara Securities sees a profit at Rs 1,690 crore. It sees revenue rising 37 per cent YoY to Rs 5,252 crore. Meanwhile, the Adani Ports board will also consider paying a dividend, if any, for FY23.

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