Adani Ports to share Q2 results today; profit likely to rise in single digits, sales may grow 19-25%

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd (Adani Ports) is likely to report a single-digit rise in net profit for the September quarter on a 19-25 per cent growth in sales. Margin is seen expanding on a sequential basis but falling on an yearly basis due to increase in share of lower margin businesses such as Haifa port and logistics, analysts said.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects Adani Ports to clock a 5 per cent YoY rise in adjusted profit at Rs 2,067.20 crore compared with Rs 1,968.30 crore in the same quarter last year. The year-ago last quarter had extraordinary items worth Rs 233.50 crore. Kotak sees sales for the quarter rising 18.8 per cent YoY to 6,188.70 crore against Rs 5,210.80 crore. Ebitda is seen rising 14.1 per cent to Rs 3,719.40 crore while Ebitda margin is seen at 60.10 per cent against a similar 60.10 per cent in June and 62.60 per cent in the same quarter last year.

"We model 19 per cent YoY improvement in revenues, driven by a combination of organic volume growth (low-double digit), realisation growth (mid single-digit) and boost from Haifa port and logistics business (2-3 per cent). Underlying comparable volume growth is driven by very strong growth in container volumes (up 19 per cent YoY)," Kotak Institutional Equities said.

B&K Securities sees sales for Adani Ports to grow 24.4 per cent YoY to Rs 6,484.30 crore. It sees sequential revenue growth at 4 per cent on the back of 3 per cent QoQ growth in cargo volumes as it does not expect any increase in realisations. The same brokerage sees profit for the quarter at Rs 2,144.60 crore.

"Adani Ports reported 101 mt of cargo volume in Q2FY24. Ex-Haifa port volume, we estimate 97 mt of cargo, in line with Adani Ports' guidance for FY24F (370-39 0mt). We expect Adani Ports' Ebitda (excluding SEZ) to rise 14 per cent YoY, driven by 16 per cent YoY cargo growth," InCred Equities said in a note.

PhillipCapital expects profit after tax at Rs 1,819.10 crore. It pegs revenue at Rs 6,344.30 crore, up 21.8 per cent YoY. The brokerage said acquisition impact is likely visible on YoY numbers. Margin, it said, would be impacted due to revenue mix and international operations. This brokerage has assumed forex loss of Rs 350 crore in the September quarter against a gain of Rs 88.40 crore in Q1FY24 and a loss of about Rs 300 in the year-ago quarter.

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