Adani Ports to share Q4 results, dividend today. Revenue seen rising 30%; here're profit estimates

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd (Adani Ports) is likely to report sales growth of about 30 per cent for the March quarter, though analyst profit growth estimates by a few brokerages for the Adani group company vary from roughly Rs 1,330 crore to Rs 1,840 crore.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects Adani Ports to report 80 per cent year-on-year (YoY) surge in net profit at Rs 1,842.80 crore for the March quarter compared with Rs 1,024 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Sales are seen surging 30.80 per cent YoY to Rs 5,028.50 crore from Rs 3,845 crore in the same quarter last year. Ebitda margin is seen at 63.8 per cent, up 184 basis points YoY over 62 per cent in the year-ago quarter.

"We model 19 per cent and 31 per cent YoY improvements in volumes and revenues, driven by a combination of organic volume growth (mid single-digit), realisation growth (high single-digit), and boost from Gangavaram volumes (high single-digit). Underlying comparable volume growth continues to be impacted by the weakness in country-level demand and export curbs. We model a marginal 100 basis points YoY reduction in Ebitda margin QoQ, assuming negligible low-margin SEZ income.

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ICICIdirect sees profit after tax at Rs 1,328.80 crore, up 29.80 per cent YoY. It sees revenue for the quarter at Rs 4,938.30 crore, up 28.40 per cent YoY. Ebitda is seen rising 31 per cent to Rs 3,121 crore.

"Port revenues are expected to grow 37 per cent YoY, led by strong Q4 volumes growth and consolidation of numbers from Haifa Port, Sarguja rail, Gangavaram Port and ICD Tumb. Overall, consolidated revenues are expected to grow 28 per cent YoY to | 4938 crore as port revenues would be aided by a better logistics segment performance. Similarly, Ebitda will likely grow 31 per cent as Ebitda margins are expected to remain rangebound at 62-63 per cent levels (ex-forex). Subsequently, PAT is expected to grow 30 per cent to Rs 1,329 crore.

Elara Securities sees profit at Rs 1,690 crore. It sees revenue rising 37 per cent YoY to Rs 5,252 crore. Meanwhile, the Adani Ports board will also consider paying dividend, if any, for FY23.

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The quarter saw foreign portfolio investor (FPI) increasing their holding in the Adani group firm to a multi-quarter high, thanks to investments by Rajiv Jain-led GQG investment this past month. Domestic institutions such as Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and mutual funds trimmed stakes in the Adani group firm during the same period, latest shareholding pattern suggests.

Jain's US-based global equity investment firm had in March purchased 88,600,000 Adani Ports shares at Rs 596.20 apiece for Rs 5,282 crore. The shares bought accounted for 4.1 per cent of Adani Ports stake.

Data showed FPIs as an institutional category held 38,85,97,716 shares, or 17.99 per cent stake, in the March quarter. This is against 13.76 per cent stake they held in the largest domestic integrated transport utility in December quarter, 14.33 per cent in September and 14.24 per cent in June quarter. FPIs held 18.72 per cent stake in the December quarter of 2019.

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