Bharti Airtel Q4 results: Profit may fall; subscriber addition likely at 30 lakh

Bharti Airtel is likely to report a double-digit fall in consolidated profit for the March quarter despite a single digit rise in sales. Ebitda margin are seen expanding on both sequential and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Analysts are roughly factoring in a net subscriber addition of 30 lakh and a slight improvement in sequential average revenue per user (ARPU) at Rs 211 in Q4. Africa, enterprise and home services are seen showing how steady growth but the DTH business will be muted, analysts said.

All eyes would be on the progress on 5G adoption, capex trajectory, pre-paid to post-paid conversion trends, traction in home broadband and update on partly-paid rights issue.

Emkay Global expects Bharti Airtel’s ARPU to grow 1.4 per cent sequentially to Rs 211, given the better mix partially offset by the lower number of days in the quarter. 

"Overall, subscriber addition QoQ is expected to be 30 lakh against 32 lakh in Q3, leading to its India mobile revenue growing 1.5 per cent QoQ. For Homes, we expect a robust 3.9 per cent QoQ (up 20.5 per cent YoY) revenue growth, supported by continued subscriber addition. The Enterprise segment is likely to report muted growth," it said. 
 
The brokerage expects Africa revenue to decline 0.9 per cent QoQ, on currency devaluation in Nigeria. Ne-net, it sees profit falling 12.7 per cent YoY to Rs 2,623 crore on 6.1 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 38,219 crore. Ebitda margin is seen at 52.4 per cent.

Prabhudas Lilladher sees profit for Bharti Airtel declining 26.8 per cent YoY to Rs 2,201 crore on 7.6 per cent jump in sales at Rs 38,736 crore. This brokerage sees margin at 52.5 per cent. 

"For Q4, we have factored subscriber growth of 30 lakh to 34.9 crore coupled with ARPU increase of 1.5 per cent QoQ to Rs 211. Airtel Africa business is expected to see revenue growth of 3 per cent QoQ, and we have factored in a 4 per cent QoQ growth rate for the enterprise business. Home services will see revenue growth of 10 per cent QoQ. For DTH we have factored a growth of 2.2 per cent QoQ," PL said.

Nomura India said Africa business’ operational performance on constant currency basis remained healthy in 4QFY24. But on a reported basis, it factored in a revenue decline of 15 per cent QoQ to Rs 8,800 crore, reflecting the impact of the devaluation of the Naira against the dollar. It believes Ebitda to decline 15 per cent QoQ to Rs 4,300 crore with margins moderating 10 bps to 49 per cent. 

On consolidated basis, Nomura sees profit falling 33 per cent YoY for Airtel at about Rs 2,000 crore on 2.2 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 36,900 crore.