ICICI Bank Q3 results preview: Profit may rise 19-25%, NII 12%; margins may fall QoQ

ICICI Bank is expected to report a 19-25 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit for the December quarter on lower provisions and jump in fee income. Net interest income (NII) is seen rising 12-13 per cent for the quarter while net interest margin is seen contracting sequentially, though marginally. Benign credit costs is seen supporting earnings while asset quality is expected to stay stable.

The private lender is scheduled to report its Q3 earnings on Saturday, January 20.

Axis Securities expects ICICI Bank to report 18.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit at Rs 9,885 crore in the December quarter compared with Rs 8,312 crore in the same quarter last year, as provisions are seen falling 55.5 per cent YoY to Rs 1,005 crore over Rs 2,257 crore. On sequential basis, however, provisions are seen rising over Rs 583 crore in the September quarter.

Axis Securities sees net interest income rising 12.2 per cent YoY to Rs 18,468 crore against Rs 16,465 crore YoY; and non-interest income climbing 18 per cent YoY to Rs 5,927 crore against Rs 5,024 crore YoY.

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PhillipCapital said the momentum in loan book is expected to continue and that a marginal NIM contraction is likely due to rise in cost of deposit. Total vulnerable loan (restructured, gross NPAs and below investment grade) net of provision may decline sequentially, it said. This brokerage expects slippages at Rs 4,700 crore against Rs 4,687 crore in September and Rs 5,723 crore in the year-ago quarter.

Gross NPA percentage is seen at 2.3 per cent against 2.5 per cent in September and 3.1 per cent n the year-ago quarter. PhillipCapital expects profit for ICICI Bank to rise 24.5 per cent YoY to Rs 10,345.90 crore.

Motilal Oswal sees profit for ICICI Bank climbing 20.1 per cent YoY to Rs 9,985 crore. It sees NII rising 12.3 per cent YoY to Rs 18,492 crore. This brokerage projected a healthy loan growth led by Retail and SME segments. It said credit costs may inch up slightly. Motilal Oswal said there is adequate contingency buffers to add comfort while suggesting compression in margin trajectory. Traction in opex and deposit growth will be the key monitorables, it said.

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