ITC Q4 results, dividend today; flat profit likely on muted cigarette volumes

ITC is all set to report a muted set of quarterly results, as cigarette volumes consolidate, leading to lower Ebit growth. Analysts said Hotels and FMCG may continue to perform well but Paperboards segment may stay weak.

JM Financial sees adjusted profit to come in at Rs 5,062.20 crore for the March quarter, up 0.6 per cent YoY over Rs 5,032.40 crore in the same quarter last year. Sales are seen rising 3.2 per cent YoY to Rs 17,783 crore from Rs 17,224 crore.

Ebitda may rise 1 per cent YoY to Rs 6,272 crore while Ebitda margin may fall 78 basis points to 35.6 per cent, JM said. Cigarette volume growth is seen at 0.5 per cent YoY.

Motilal Oswal Securities also expects flat YoY volume growth in cigarettes business. It sees gross margin and Ebitda margin falling 160 bps YoY each.

Margins in the FMCG business is expected to decrease due to the PLI benefit in the base quarter. All eyes would be on the commentary on the agri and paper & packaging business. This brokerage sees profit at Rs 5,122 crore on 4.5 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 18,422 crore.

YES Securities forecast top line for ITC to grow at1.1 per cent YoY, as it factors in YoY volume growth in cigarette business to be at 1 per cent against a 5-year CAGR of 3.3 per cent.

"Other-FMCG business is expected to grow at 7 per cent YoY. Ban on exports for the Agri business is already in the base so the drag on top line will be restricted to the PPP business, which is expected to be down by 5 per cent YoY. At the company level, we expect Ebitda margin to contract 60 basis points YoY to 37.3 per cent.

Along with its quarterly results, ITC would also be announcing final dividend, if any, for FY24 today.