Maruti Suzuki India Q3 results: Profit may surge 30-35%, volume growth seen at 8%; margin to contract QoQ

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd may report a strong 30-35 per cent year-on-year (YoY) surge in net profit for the December quarter on 14-15 per cent rise in sales. Volume growth is seen at 7-8 per cent. Ebitda margin is seen expanding YoY but falling on sequential basis due to rising raw material cost and operating deleverage.

Prabhudas Lilladher (PL) is expecting Maruti Suzuki India to report 19.3 per cent YoY rise in profit at Rs 2,806 crore compared with Rs 2,351.30 crore in the same quarter last year. It sees sales at Rs 33,211 crore, up 14.3 per cent YoY over Rs 29,044 crore in the same quarter last year. Margins are seen expanding to 11 per cent, up 122 basis points over 9.8 per cent YoY.

"Maruti's revenue may grow 14.3 per cent YoY due to 8 per cent YoY improvement in volumes and higher realisation of 6.3 per cent YoY due to price hikes and richer product mix. We expect Ebitda margin to increase to 11 per cent (up 122 bps YoY) SUV percentage and operating leverage. We expect PAT to grow by 35.6 per cent YoY," PL said.

Motilal Oswal is expecting profit figure at Rs 3,072 crore, up 30.7 per cent YoY. It sees sales climbing 15.2 per cent YoY to Rs 33,471 crore. It sees Ebitda margin at 12.2 per cent. Like PL, this brokerage also sees volume growth at 8 per cent YoY was driven by visible traction in UVs (60 per cent YoY growth), even as it projects entry-level model volumes to decline 48 per cent YoY.

"Ebitda margin likely to contract 70 bps QoQ to 12.2 per cent, due to uptick in RM costs coupled with operating deleverage. We have slightly tweaked our FY24E/FY25E volumes to account for the weakness in the entry-level segment," Motilal Oswal said in its results preview.

Kotak Institutional Equities said revenues may increase 14 per cent YoY, led by an 8 per cent YoY increase in volumes and a 6 per cent YoY rise in average selling price (ASP) due to price increases and richer product mix -- higher mix of SUV segment.

"We estimate Ebitda margins to decline by 150 bps QOQ to 11.5 per cent, led by negative operating leverage benefit, higher discounts on account of the festive season, reversal of finished goods inventory and inferior product mix (200 bps decline in SUV segment mix) in 3QFY24," it said.

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