Vodafone Idea Q4 results today: Rs 7,300-7,700 crore loss likely; ARPU to improve QoQ

Vodafone Idea Ltd, which recently concluded its Rs 18,000 crore follow-on public offer (FPO), is all set to announce its March quarter results on Thursday, May 16. Analysts are expecting the telecom operating to see widening of losses sequentially. While they see a marginal improvement in average revenue per user (ARPU) quarter-on-quarter, they expect subscriber loss to be in excess of 40 lakh sequentially.

Nomura India said it estimates Vodafone Idea's March quarter revenue to remain steady sequentially at Rs 10,700 crore, as the 1 per cent sequential increase in ARPU to Rs 147 per month against Rs 145 in Q3 will be offset by a sharp 42 lakh sequential decline in its net subscribers (46 lakh decline in Q3).

Nomura sees net subscriber base at 21.1 crore. "We estimate VIL’s Ebitda to decline 1 per cent QoQ to Rs 4,300 crore (vs Rs 4400 crore in 3Q) and Ebitda margins to moderate 40 bps QoQ to 40.4 per cent. We estimate net loss for VIL to rise further to Rs 7,700 crore in 4QFY24 from about Rs 7,000 crore in the previous quarter, which was aided by exceptional gains of Rs 760 crore," it said.

Ahead of its quarterly earnings, data showed top mutual funds owned Rs 4,497 crore worth Vodafone Idea shares at April end against Rs 1,292 crore at March end. They owned 340.67 crore Vodafone Idea shares in the month gone by against Rs 9,753 crore earlier, as per ICICIdirect.

Emkay Global expects subscriber loss to continue for Vodafone Idea. This brokerge is building in a loss of 45 subscribers in Q4 against 46 lakh loss in the December quarter.

"We believe Vi would add 10 lakh 4G subscribers against 9 lakh additions in Q3FY24. ARPU is set to rise 1.1 per cent QoQ to Rs 147, led by increased prices of entry-level plans and up-trending, though it was slightly offset by 1 less day in Q4 vs Q3," Emkay said.

Overall, Emkay Global expects for Vodafone Idea to decline 0.8 per cent QoQ. It said Q4 margin growth would be flattish, with margin increasing a tad by 10 bps QoQ to 40.9 per cent, owing to lower marketing expenses.

Nuvama expects Vodafone Idea to report a core loss of Rs 7,307 crore. It sees revenue for the telecom operator rising 2 per cent YoY to Rs 10,779 crore against Rs 10,531 crore YoY

"We estimate moderate revenue growth of 1 per cent QoQ, on 2 per cent ARPU increase and flat subscriber base. Ebitda margins to expand by 90bps QoQ. Key monitorables: update on fund raising plans; plans to increase network capacity and arrest subscriber decline," it Nuvama said.