he HDFC Bank stock has jumped sharply on MSCI weightage increase. A further re-rating would mostly be contingent on progress around NIM trajectory, analysts said. 
Special 
he HDFC Bank stock has jumped sharply on MSCI weightage increase. A further re-rating would mostly be contingent on progress around NIM trajectory, analysts said. HDFC Bank Ltd, whose shares fell nearly 5 per cent in Friday's trade amid muted provisional advances and deposit Q1 figures, is scheduled to report its June quarter results on Saturday, July 20. Analysts expect the private lender to report 28-30 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit on a 24-25 per cent jump in net interest income (NII). Net interest margin (NIM) is seen flattish on sequential basis. Slippages are likely to jump sequentially due to seasonality. Guidance for business growth and earnings trajectory will be the key monitorables, analysts said.
ICICI Securities expects HDFC Bank's profit after tax to rise 28.3 per cent YoY to Rs 15,329 crore for the June quarter on 25.3 per cent YoY rise in net interest income (NII) at Rs 29,567 crore. Pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) is seen rising 23.4 per cent to Rs 23,170 crore.
The brokerage said credit rationing and sharper focus could aid broadly stable net interest margin sequentially. Slippages are likely to jump QoQ, led by seasonality, it said.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd expects HDFC Bank to report PAT at Rs 15,458 crore, up 29.3 per cent YoY. It sees NII for HDFC Bank rising 24.3 per cent YoY to Rs 29,343 crore. The domestic brokerage believes operating expenses for the private lender to remain under control and sees broadly stable margin.
"The HDFC Bank stock has jumped sharply on MSCI weightage increase; thus, further re-rating would mostly be contingent on progress around deposits/loan growth and NIM trajectory. We are building in 18 per cent YoY growth in deposits and 13 per cent YoY loan growth for FY25," ICICI Securities said.
The brokerage believes HDFC Bank may see a sharp drop in reported provisioning, owing to its one-off provisions last quarter.
Nuvama Institutional Equities said it is building in flat NIM with lending rate hikes in Q4FY24 and change in loan mix.
"But NIM remains a key variable to monitor given that repricing of e-HDFC borrowings is still not yielding any cost benefit while the cost on new deposits has also increased. Rs 15,600 crore of e-HDFC borrowings—mostly CPs—have matured in Q1FY25. In addition, there will be normal attrition of e-HDFC deposits," it said.
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