Q2 result previews: NMDC, IRCTC, ONGC, Grasim, Bharat Forge & Biocon

Dozens of companies will declare their September quarter earnings on Monday. Among them are NMDC, IRCTC, ONGC, Grasim Industries, Bharat Forge and Biocon. Analyst estimates suggest NMDC and ONGC could report a sharp fall in Q2 profits. IRCTC and Grasim are seen reporting strong bottom line growth while Bharat Forge and Biocon are expected to report flattish profit growth for the September quarter.

NMDC: Elara Securities expects NMDC to report a 50.3 per cent YoY plunge in net profit at Rs 1,163 crore for September quarter compared with Rs 2,341 crore in the year-ago quarter. Revenue for the quarter is likely to tank 41.2 per cent YoY to Rs 3,995.70 crore from Rs 6,793.50 crore in the same quarter last year. Ebitda is seen falling 52.4 per cent YoY to Rs 1,481.80 crore from Rs 3,114.60 crore in the year-ago quarter.

"NMDC sales volume is expected to decline 3 per cent YoY but rise 11 per cent QoQ. Further, realisation is likely to drop 38 per cent YoY and 24 per cent QoQ, weighed by weak iron ore prices. Thus, we expect NMDC Ebitda per tonne to plunge 51 per cent YoY and 30 per cent QoQ in Q2FY23E," the brokerage said.

ONGC: The state run oil exploration and production company  may report a 46.8 per cent YoY drop in profit at Rs 9,769.50 crore compared with Rs 18,347.70 crore in the year-ago quarter, Nuvama Institutional Equities said in a note.  Revenue is seen rising 30.3 per cent YoY to Rs 31,728.70 crore compared with Rs 24,353.60 crore in the same quarter last year.

The brokerage expects ONGC's Ebitdax to improve 34 per cent YoY on higher gas realisation, offset by modest production.

That said, "we anticipate 32 per cent QoQ dip in Ebitda on the impositon of windfall tax during the quarter. While benchmark crude (Brent) realisation has surged 38 per cent YoY in Q2, we expect net realisation to remain flat YoY on windfall tax levy. APM gas prices however surged 3.4 times YoY in Q2. Production would however remain flat both YoY and QoQ at 5.4MMT (Oil) and 5.4BCM (Gas) in Q2 respectively," the brokerage said.

IRCTC: Prabhudas Lilladher expects IRCTC to report a 55.9 per cent YoY rise in net profit at Rs 247.20 crore for September quarter compared with Rs 158.60 crore in the year-ago quarter. Revenue for the quarter is likely to surge 111.60 per cent YoY to Rs 856.90 crore from Rs 404.90 crore in the same quarter last year. Margin for the quarter is seen at 37.5 per cent agains 52.2 per cent in the year-ago quarter due  to falling contribution of high margin ticketing business.

"We expect 112 per cent YoY revenue growth due to base effect and continued traction in non-convenience income & catering business. Online booking is expected to be at 10.90 crore tickets for the quarter," the brokerage said.

Grasim Industries: Motilal Oswal said revenue of Grasim is expected to increase 48 per cent YoY to Rs 7,320 crore, led by volume growth of 27 per cent and realisation growth of 18 per cent in the VSF segment; and volume rowth of 2 per cent and realisation growth of 49 per cent in the Chemical segment.

Ebitda for the company should increase 43 per cent YoY to Rs 1,144 crore, led by a two times growth in Ebitda in the Chemical segment, Motilal Oswal Securities said. This is even as Ebitda for the VSF segment may decline 20 per cent YoY due to cost pressure. Motilal Oswal expects profit to increase 21 per cent YoY to Rs 1,148.70 crore for the September quarter.

Bharat Forge: Kotak Institutional Equities expects Bharat Forge to report a 4.2 per cent YoY drop in consolidated adjusted net profit at Rs 259.10 crore for the September quarter on a 27.7 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 3,045.70 crore.

"We estimate consolidated revenues to increase by 7 per cent QoQ led by a 4 per cent QoQ increase in standalone revenues, 5 per cent QoQ increase in EU

subsidiaries and consolidation of JS Auto. In standalone business, we expect domestic segment revenues to increase 5 per cent qoq due to doubledigit growth in PV business & mid-single digit growth in CV and non-auto business," the brokerage said.

Kotak expects export segment revenues to increase 2 per cent on a QoQ basis led by gradual recovery in PV and CV segment. It sees non-auto business revenues to decline on a sequential basis.

Biocon: Nuvama Instiutional Equities expects Biocon to report a 0.60 per cent YoY rise in profit at Rs 204.80 crore compared with Rs 203.70 crore in the year-ago quarter.  Revenue is seen rising 34.80 per cent YoY to Rs 2,481 crore compared with Rs 1,840 crore in the same quarter last year, thanks to due to low base in generics (up 27 per cent YoY) and research services (23 per cent YoY) and market share gains in insulin glargine. Biocon continues to have steady market share in gAfinitor, it noted. 

"Sequentially, biosimilars are expected to grow 8 per cent in constant currency at $138 million as a result of market share gain in insulin glargine (now 11 per cent market share). While pegfilgrastim remain

stable QoQ at 9 per cent, trastuzumab market share has declined from 10.4 per cent to 8 per cent. Ebitda margins will decline 125 bps YoY but improve 430 bps QoQ to 23 per cemt as a result of higher biosimilars profit share expected this quarter and currency tailwinds," Nuvama said.

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