Q2 result previews: HDFC, Vodafone Idea, HPCL, Devyani & Coromandel Int'l

A host of companies will declare their September quarter earnings  on Thursday, including HDFC, HPCL, Coromandel International, Devyani International and Vodafone Idea. While HDFC is seen reporting about 15 per cent YoY growth in profit, HPCL and Vodafone Idea are seen reporting losses for the quarter. Coromandel International could report a 30 per cent jump in Q2 bottom line while Devyani International is expected to log over 50 per cent jump in profit.   

HDFC: Motilal Oswal said HDFC has seen some resolutions in the non-individual book through sale to ARC, leading to an improvement in asset quality but which will also keep the non-individual loan growth muted. It expects that the transitory impact on margins will continue in September quarter. This brokerage expects HDFC's Q2 profit (core profit excluding exceptional items) to rise 15.6 per cent YoY to Rs 4,185.30 crore. It sees sales to grow 10.7 per cent YoY at Rs 4,547.70 crore. AUM growth likely to be healthy at 16 per cent YoY while disbursements in individual loans is expected to stay strong. All eyes would be on on margins, home loan demand and asset quality in the non-individual segment, Motilal said.

HPCL: Kotak Institutional Equities expects HPCL to report a loss of Rs 10,813.60 crore for the quarter compared with a profit of Rs 1803.90 crore in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is seen rising 25.3 per cent YoY to Rs 1,04,094.80 crore. The brokerage sees refining margins of $5.5 per barrel against $16.7 per barrel in June quarter, It sees crude throughput at 4.9 mmt, fuel under-recoveries at Rs 9,000 crore and inventory loss of nearly Rs 2,800 crore.

"We expect HPCL to record another very weak quarter with Ebitda loss of Rs 9,700 crore, driven by negative auto fuel marketing margins continuing; sharp declines in refining margins QoQ; and inventory losses in both refining and marketing as oil prices declined significantly in September," it said.

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Coromandel International: Phillip Capital expects Coromandel International's profit to rise 30.2 per cent to Rs 683.50 crore from 524.80 crore YoY. Sales are seen rising 18.5 per cent to Rs 7,287.40 crore from Rs 6,147.50 crore YoY. Ebitda margin is seen jumping to 12.8 per cent from 12 per cent in June quarter and 12.1 per cent in the year-ago quarter. Subsidy support and high MRPs for P&K fertilisers will drive 19 per cent YoY, the brokerage said, adding that the profit growth would mainly be driven by operating performance.

Vodafone Idea: Edelweiss expects Vodafone Idea to report a narrowing of losses to Rs 7,128.70 crore in September quarter compared with Rs 7296.70 crore in June quarter and Rs 7,145.80 crore in the year-ago quarter. Revenue is seen growing 10.9 per cent at Rs 10,432.60 crore from Rs 9,406.40 crore YoY. Ebitda margin is seen at 41.5 per cent against 41.6 per cent in June and 41.1 per cent in the year-ago quarter.

"For Vodafone Idea, we estimate revenue to grow by 0.2 per cent QoQ, on 1.6 per cent ARPU increase and 35 lakh subscriber decline. Ebitda margins are likely to remain flattish. Considering a fragile balance sheet, ability to roll out 5G may be constrained. Key things to watch out would be ability to update on fund raise, plan to increase network capacity and arrest subscriber decline," Edelweiss said.

Devyani International: Kotak Institutional Equities sees a 55 per cent YoY jump in Devyani's Q2 profit at Rs 73.30 crore on a 41.60 per cent YOY rise in sales at Rs 730.90 crore. Ebitda margin is seen at 23.3 per cent against 23.4 per cent in June and 24.8 per cent in the year-ago quarter.

"We model 27, 25, and 10 net new KFC, PH and Costa stores in Q2 and  average daily sales per store of Rs 1,22,500, Rs 44,000 and Rs 35,000, respectively. We expect revenues from other domestic brands and international outlets at Rs 40 rcore and Rs 57.50 crore, respectively," it said.

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