SBI, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, BPCL: 5 Nifty firms that may log 50-200% surge in Q4 profit

A total of five Nifty constituents namely State Bank of India (SBI), Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank and BPCL may report 50-200 per cent jump in bottom line for the March quarter, various brokerage estimates suggest.

Motilal Oswal Securities is expecting Nifty as a pack to report 9 per cent growth in sales and 16 per cent rise in Ebitda ad 14 per cent growth in profit for the March quarter. It expects Ebitda margin for Nifty companies, excluding financials and OMCs, to stay flat YoY at 21.9 per cent for the quarter.

A total of 16 companies are seen profit after tax (PAT) growth in excess of 30 per cent YoY while 10 companies are expected to report a YoY decline in PAT.

In the case of BPCL, the oil marketing company is likely to report up to 200 per cent jump in net profit for the March quarter, led by fuel over-recoveries and resilient refining margin. Ebitda margin is expected to expand by at least 200 basis points YoY.

Emkay Global sees BPCL's profit at Rs 3,824 crore, up 79.5 per cent YoY. Kotak Institutional Equities expects the OMC to report profit at Rs 4,628 crore, up 117 per cent YoY (136 per cent QoQ) over Rs 2,130.50 crore in the year-ago quarter. Sales is seen rising 4 per cent YoY (down 5 per cent sequential) to Rs 1,12,757.60 from Rs 1,08,773.60 crore in the year-ago quarter. Motilal Oswal has the most optimistic estimates. It sees profit soaring 201.5 per cent YoY to Rs 7,187.70 crore on a 1.8 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 10,596 crore.

Motilal Oswal expects SBI (up 66.6 per cent) Maruti Suzuki (up 54.2 per cent YoY), Bajaj Finserv (up 51.5 per cent) and IndusInd Bank (up 50.7 per cent) to report solid jump in profit for the quarter.

For SBI, Kotak sees 74 per cent YoY jump in profit at Rs 15,890 crore on 25 per cent YoY jump in net interest income (NII) at Rs 38,856 crore.

"We expect a operating profit growth of 25 per cent YoY led by strong NII growth. We are building 25 per cent YoY NII growth on the back of 15 per cent YoY loan growth. We are building stable NIM but do see a possibility of a small expansion given the structure of loan book and neglibile need for deposits to fund this growth," Kotak said. The brokerage expects SBI slippages at 1.5 per cent of loans, mostly driven by SME and retail.

For IndusInd Bank, Motilal Oswal sees Q4 profit at Rs 2,110.80 crore, up 50.7 per cent YoY. NII is seen jumping 19.2 per cent YoY to Rs 4,750 crore. PhillipCapital, however, expects profit for this private lender to grow less than 50 per cent at 38.1 per cent. It pegs March quarter profit at Rs 1,933,60. Kotak sees profit growing 33 per cent at Rs 1,812.60 crore.

In the case of Maruti Suzuki, Kotak expects profit at Rs 2,830.50 crore, up 53.90 per cent YoY. Sales are expected to rise 21.1 per cent to Rs 32,377 crore. Motilal sees profit for the largest car maker growing 54.2 per cent YoY to Rs 2,836.50 crore.

Meanwhile, Motilal Oswal expects Bajaj Finserv to clock 51.5 per cent YoY rise in profit at Rs 2000 crore.