Sensex, Nifty this week: From Q3 earnings of major banks to India's trade balance, factors that may drive Dalal Street  

Last week, Indian markets witnessed modest gains with Sensex and Nifty hitting new record closing highs. A sharp rally in IT stocks after better-than-expected Q3 numbers lifted the market in the last trading session. This week, investors will be focusing on the quarterly results of some major banking and Finance sector companies. Besides the balance of trade, wholesale inflation, and passenger vehicle sales data will also be released this week. 

Quarterly results: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak, Mahindra Bank, Union Bank of India, IDFC First Bank IndusInd Bank, Federal Bank, Jio Financial Services, and Angel One are among the major names in the BFSI sector to report their numbers in the coming week.

Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, UltraTech Cement, Persistent Systems, LTIMindtree, Network 18 Media & Investments, Steel Strips Wheels, L&T Technology Services, Polycab India, Tata Communications, J. K. Cement are some other important companies that will release their quarterly numbers.

Economic data: On the economy front, investors would be eyeing India's wholesale prices index (WPI) which is expected to be released on January 15. On the same day, investors will be watching for the Balance of Trade (Export and import) data as well as Passenger vehicle sales data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Further, India's Foreign Exchange Reserves data is scheduled to be released on January 19.  

Investors will also be looking forward to the World Economic Forum (WEF) at Davos 2024, to be held from January 15 to January 19. The Annual Meeting 2024, taking place in Davos, Switzerland, will primarily focus on exploring the opportunities enabled by the new technologies and their implications on decision-making and global partnership.  

US market data: On the global front from the US, traders will be eyeing some important macro-economic data, starting with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index on January 16, followed by Retail Sales, Export and import prices, Industrial Production, Business Inventories and NAHB Housing Market on January 17, API Crude Oil Stock, Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Oil Stocks on January 18, Existing Home Sales, Baker Hughes Oil Rig on January 19 and Net Long-term TIC Flows on January 20.  

Market Outlook: Amol Athawale, Vice President - Technical Research at Kotak Securities, said that in the last week, the benchmark indices witnessed high volatility. After a roller coaster activity, he said, the nifty ended 0.91 per cent higher while the Sensex gained over 840 points. "Technically, the week opening was negative after a short-term correction the Nifty took the support near 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and bounced back sharply. Post reversal the Nifty/ Sensex not only successfully cleared short-term resistance of 21750/72100 level but it succeeded in closing above the same, which is largely positive."

Athawale further added that in addition, on daily charts the index has formed a range breakout formation, which supports further uptrend from the current levels. “In our view, as long as the index is trading above 21750/72100 breakout texture is likely to continue. Above the same, the market could move up till 22100-22200/73000-73300. On the flip side, below 21750/72100 traders may prefer to exit out from the trading long positions. Below which, the index could retest the level of 21650-21575/70800-70600."

Bank Nifty: For bank nifty traders, 20-day SMA or 47900 would act as a trend decider level. "If it sustains above the same then it could rally till 48300-48500. On the other side, below 47500 traders may prefer to exit out from the trading long positions,”  Athawale said. 

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