US elections 2024, stock market: What Gift Nifty signals as Donald Trump leads in 3 states

US election results: Despite firm cues from Asian markets, Gift Nifty opened on a cautious note on Wednesday and hinted at a muted start for the domestic market later today. Early US election trends suggest the Republican candidate Donald Trump was leading in three states in the US, while the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris was ahead in one state.   

Gift Nifty was trading at 24,256.70, down 40 points or 0.16 per cent.  The muted Gift Nifty movement was contrast to positive trading in Asian stock markets such as Japan and South Korea, and an overnight rise in US stocks. Reports suggest the Republican candidate Donald Trump was leading in Kentucky, West Virginia and Indiana, while the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris was ahead in Vermont.

Data showed Japan's Nikkei was trading at 38,843.50 in early trade, up 263.50 points, or 0.68 per cent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was up 67.90 points, or 0.83 per cent at 8,200.90. South Korea's Kospi advanced 4.05 points, or 0.16 per cent to 2,581.57. Chinese stocks were yet to open. 

In overnight trade, Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 427.28 points, or 1.02 per cent, to 42,221.88. The S&P 500 index climbed 70.07 points, or 1.23 per cent, to 5,782.76. 

In the case of Nifty, options data is reflecting a cautious outlook, with call writing significantly outpacing put activity, indicating a bearish stance. 

"The highest open interest is concentrated at the 25,000-strike call (79.95 lakh contracts) and the 23,500-strike put (51.33 lakh contracts). Active trading is concentrated in the 24,200–24,500 call range and the 23,800–24,100 put range. Strong resistance from call writers (Bears) in the 24,200–24,500 area contrasts with solid support around 23,800–24,100, reflecting a shift in resistance to lower levels amid bearish sentiment," said SAMCO Securities. 

"Elevated call writing within this resistance zone suggests increased confidence among sellers, while put unwinding indicates a strengthening bearish outlook. The put-call ratio (PCR) has dipped from 0.79 to 0.67, reinforcing the cautious sentiment. Currently, the “max pain” level is situated at 23,900, likely playing a pivotal role in influencing the index’s movement," it said.