Sensex, Nifty this week: From retail inflation to Q3 results, factors that may drive Dalal Street

Last week Indian markets settled in the red after RBI decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for the sixth time in a row. This week Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and the Balance of Trade data in India, along with Export & Import, and inflation rates in the US are major market events that will keep the markets buzzing. 

Quarterly results: In the last leg of result season, there are many companies likely to report their quarterly numbers during the week including Bharat Forge, Coal India, NHPC, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), BHEL, Deepak Nitrite, DLF, Eicher Motors, Hindalco Industries, IRCTC, Info Edge (India), NBCC, ZEEL, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Mahindra and Mahindra, and Crisil etc.  

Economic data: In the coming week, traders will be eyeing major macroeconomic data starting with Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January to be out on February 12. On the same day, India Industrial Production (IIP) is also going to be released. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for January will be released on February 14. Investors will also be looking for the Balance of Trade data on February 15. The foreign exchange reserves data is going to be released on February 16.             

US market data: On the global front from the US, investors will first be eyeing Consumer Inflation Expectations on February 12, Inflation Rate, Redbook on February 13, Export & Import data, Initial Jobless Claims, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, on February 15, Producer Price Inflation, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on February 16. 

Technical Outlook

NIFTY: Nandish Shah, Technical and Derivative Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said after initial weakness, Nifty found support at 21,630 and recovered 152 points, to close at 21,782. Bank Nifty outperformed the Nifty where it surged more than 1.5% to close at 45635. Japan’s Nikkei hit fresh 34-year highs on Friday, while most Asia-Pacific markets were either fully or partially closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. He added, “Technically, Nifty is still in a consolidation zone where 22000 would continue to offer resistance, while the 21500-21600 band could act as support.”

Bank Nifty: Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Bank Nifty bulls exhibited strength as they successfully defended the crucial support level of 45000, establishing it as a critical support zone. "The index is currently in a "buy on dip" mode, and as long as the mentioned support holds on a closing basis, the bullish sentiment remains intact. Looking ahead, the immediate resistance on the upside is situated at 46,000, and a decisive break above this level is anticipated to trigger further short-covering moves in the market."