Sensex, Nifty this week: From India's retail inflation to Fed interest rate, factors that may drive Dalal Street

Markets continued their gaining streak for the sixth straight week and ended with gains of over three percent each in the last week. Sensex and Nifty settled above 69,800 and 20,950 levels, respectively as the BJP's victory in assembly polls in three states, and unchanged RBI repo rates boosted investor sentiment. This week, investors will be eyeing key events such as India's Consumer Price Index (CPI), balance of trade, bank loan growth, and deposit growth, along with Fed Interest Rate, and Initial Jobless Claims in the US that will keep the markets buzzing.  

Economic data: The coming week will be heavily loaded with macro-economic data. Investors would be eyeing the data of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which is scheduled to be released on December 12. On the same day, investors would also be watching India's retail inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Wholesale Price Index data will be out on December 14. Moreover, the balance of trade (export and import) data, deposit growth, bank loan growth, foreign exchange reserves data, and passenger vehicle sales will be released on December 15.   

US market data: On the global front, investors will be eyeing macro-economic reports from the world’s largest economy, the United States, starting with Consumer Inflation Expectations on December 11, followed by CPI, Redbook on December 12, Core PPI on December 13, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Press Conference, and Initial Jobless Claims on December 14, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, S&P Global Composite PMI, and Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count on December 15. 

Technical Outlook  

Nifty was up 0.33 per cent or 68.3 points at 20,969.4 on Friday. Nifty rose for the sixth straight week (up 3.46 per cent - the largest gain since July 2022). In the process, Nifty logged the longest weekly gaining streak in 3 years.

Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, said that Nifty formed a near high wave bottom pattern on daily charts on December 8. "Given the sharp recent rise, such a pattern could portend a reversal if the low of Friday is breached. Nifty could now stay in the 20850-21050 band for the near term," Jasani said.     

Bank Nifty: Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities, said that the Bank Nifty witnessed a significant rally during the week, but has been consolidating around 47,000. "A breakout from the current consolidation level could push the index towards 48,000 in the short term. Support is placed at 46,500, where put writers have built significant positions. A decisive move above 47,200 might trigger a significant rally," De said. 

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