Sensex, Nifty this week: From US unemployment data to India's auto sales, factors that may drive Dalal Street

Indian equity benchmarks ended the last week of Calendar Year 2023 with a gain of over one and a half percentage points amid positive global cues. This week, investors will be eyeing key events such as the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, auto sales data, and India's foreign exchange reserves, along with EIA crude oil stocks, FOMC minutes, and unemployment rate in the US that will keep the markets buzzing.  

Economic data: The coming week marks the start of the new month and also the start of the New Calendar Year 2024. The first week of 2024 is likely to be a data-heavy week. Investors would first be looking forward to the release of monthly auto sales data followed by S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December on January 3. The S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 in November 2023 from the 8-month low of 55.5 in October.

Investors would also be eyeing S&P Global Services PMI for December which will be released on January 5, 2024. The S&P Global India Services PMI declined to 56.9 in November 2023 from 58.4 in the previous month. On the same day, India's foreign exchange reserves data will be released. 

US market data: On the global front from the US, traders in a holiday truncated week, will be eyeing some important macro-economic data, starting with S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on January 2, followed by ISM Manufacturing PMI and Redbook on January 3, FOMC Minutes, API Crude Oil Stock, Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Oil Stocks on January 4, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders, on January 5. 

Market Outlook: Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, said the Asian stocks took a breather on the last trading day of the year and snapped their two-year losing streak with investors buoyed by the expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next year. European stocks started the final session of 2023 higher, marking a positive end to a solid year, he said. 

Jasani said the Nifty corrected after rising for 5 sessions but closed the week higher by 1.79 per cent. "It closed the month higher by 7.9 per cent and the year higher by 20 per cent. Nifty formed a sideways doji having little predictive value. The upward momentum is still strong and the Nifty could rise towards 21,801 and later 21,920. On the downside, 21,675 and 21,505 could offer support," he said. 

Bank Nifty: Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said that the Bank Nifty slipped lower, forming a small red-bodied candle on the daily chart. "Resistance is situated at 48300 on the higher end. As long as the index stays below 48300, the trend could lean towards favoring the bears. Moreover, a decisive drop below 48000 might drive the index below 47500. Conversely, a decisive move above 48300 could propel the index towards 48800-49000 on the higher end."