Climate change and the livestock sector

Are the extreme weather events like the cloud burst in Leh, heavy rains and flash floods in Uttarakhand in June, 2013 and in Chennai in November-December 2015, pointers of climate change? It is not as if the changes are happening suddenly. The universal fact is that the climate has always changed, and it always will. The Earth and its climate have never been stable.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been warning on global warming and this has led to the Kyoto Protocol and an agenda for the Paris meet. The debate continues whether global warming is a threat or the IPCC statements have political connotation devoid of any scientific basis. While the Russian Academy of Sciences has trashed IPCC statements as unscientific, Paulraj Rajamani of School of Environmental Science emphasises that the climate change is real and happening.

Through a survey of rural areas in many developing countries, OXFAM has pointed out that the seasons are more unpredictable, seasonal transitions are shorter, temperatures have increased most in winter, monsoon and rains are erratic and unpredictable, mountains get much less snowfall, dry periods have increased in length, drought is more common, and unusual seasonal events like landslides, winds, storms, fogs and temperature fluctuations are occurring more frequently.

In most international discussions on climate change, India has come under pressure for heavy emission of carbon and methane because of the large livestock population, inefficient bovines. Arvind Panagariya, Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog, considers that the argument of the IPCC "borders on fear-mongering, while obfuscating the fact that mitigation advocated by the IPCC is entirely feasible without subjecting India to binding commitments for some decades to come". India accounts for just 4.4 per cent of the current annual emissions. Compare this to 50 per cent from Canada, the US, Europe, Eurasia and Japan together and some 15 per cent from China.

Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Livestock Productivity

Climate change is often thought of as a longer-run threat, but there is accumulating empirical evidence that rising average temperatures, extreme heat events, rising atmospheric ozone levels, and other climate related phenomena are already adversely affecting agricultural productivity.

It is apprehended that climate change would reduce productivity of food and fodder crops, of dairy animals, fish and poultry. For example, the major food crops-wheat, maize and rice-grow best within a fairly narrow temperature range: about 15 degree celsius for wheat, 20 degree celsius for maize, and 25 degree celsius for rice. Spikes in temperature would pose a greater risk to crop productivity and the impacts of extreme heat are intensified when water is scarce. The International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) have used satellite observations from the years 2000-2009 to estimate the effects of extreme heat on wheat yields in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of northern India. Exposure to extreme heat (more than 34 degree celsius) caused faster maturation and a shorter grain-filling in wheat, reducing its yields by 6 per cent to 20 per cent.

Climate change affects livestock both directly and indirectly. Air temperature, humidity, wind speed and other climate factors directly influence animal performance including growth, production, health and reproduction. Higher temperatures along with altered precipitation are likely to result in the problem of heat stress in livestock in climate change sensitive regions leading to decreased production and increased susceptibility to diseases.

Milk yield can be reduced by 3 per cent to 20 per cent or more and conception rate can go as low as 0 per cent in extreme cases. The main factors linking climate change to animal productivity are: the changes in the quantity, intensity and distribution patterns of rainfall within the year and from one year to the next; and Higher average temperatures and heat waves, affecting livestock through thermal stress and crops in sensitive stages of their life cycle.

A study in Florida reported an estimate of 76 to 82 per cent of undetected estrous events in summer months compared to 44 to 65 per cent from October to May. Heat stress has a negative impact on quality of ova and the elevated uterine temperature of the heat stressed animal impairs the embryonic development, resulting in poor embryo implantation and increased embryo mortality.

Warming and changes in rainfall distribution may lead to changes in spatial or temporal distributions of diseases such as anthrax, black quarter, haemorrhagic septicaemia and vector-borne diseases that thrive in the presence of moisture. Research studies from India have found that meteorological parameters like temperature, humidity and rainfall explain 52 and 84 per cent variations in the seasonality of Foot and Mouth disease in cattle in hyper-endemic areas. Similarly higher incidence of clinical mastitis in dairy animals and aggravated infestation of cattle ticks like Boophilus microplus, Haemaphysalis bispinosa and Hyalomma anatolicum during hot and humid weather has been reported.

The estimated annual loss due to heat stress among cattle and buffaloes at the all-India level is estimated to be over Rs 2,700 crore. The negative impact of direct temperature rise on total milk production of cattle and buffaloes for India has been estimated to be about 1.6 million tonnes in 2020 and more than 15 million tonnes in 2050.

Changes in temperature, precipitation, drought, storms and floods can influence fish aquaculture both negatively and positively. Some commercially important species may not be able to tolerate these changed and extreme conditions and new ones may emerge as the potential candidates for farming. In India, about 62 species of fishes that are potentially cultivable, requiring conservation efforts or both the actions. Out of these, 42 species need immediate attention and the rest are categorized as 2nd priority species, which can be taken up for studies and trials at a later stage. Of the 42 species, 25 (60.5 per cent) are prioritised for both aquaculture and conservation actions; 15 (34.9 per cent) for aquaculture and the remaining 2 (4.7 per cent) for conservation only.

Countering Climate Change to Revitalise Agriculture and Livestock Productivity

In the context of international food security, the Asian Development Bank has noted that the problems of agricultural productivity need to be addressed immediately. There is an urgent need to revitalise growth in agricultural productivity. One of the factors for decline in crop productivity is the 'Green Revolution' of the 1970s. Despite the rapid increase in yields at the outset, the green revolution has also resulted in environmental damage caused by (i) heavy and inappropriate use of fertilizers and pesticides, (ii) irrigation practices leading to salt build-up and (iii) receding groundwater levels in areas where more water is pumped for irrigation. This has led perversely to the dampening of long term productivity levels. The use of fertilizers was not based on proper soil testing, nutrient deficiency analysis, or crop needs. This has adversely affected crop yields, soil fertility, and long-term sustainability. Therefore, there is soil degradation, ground water depletion and contamination and, more importantly, declining yields. There is a need to take corrective measures to reverse current trends and boost production.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) considers that the impact of climate change may be manageable by 2050 with large and sustained increase of investment in agriculture, application of technology and management of water resources. Integrating agriculture with livestock by practising mixed farming and use of bio-fertilizer would be very useful.

Traditional knowledge has taught farmers to sustain their farming systems and livelihoods by managing agriculture and livestock with the climate variations. Water and soil conservation practices to mitigate climate change impacts can help sustain production food, feed, fodder, fruits and vegetable. These may, however, involve some trade-offs between sustainability and productivity. Agronomic practices like mulching, direct seeding, and minimum tillage conserve soil moisture and hence offer some resistance to high temperatures. Farmers could be supported with meteorological data and faster weather forecasts. Altering calendar for planting can reduce exposure to extreme weather conditions, but may upset multiple cropping systems. Switching to earlier maturing varieties can help, but early-maturing varieties tend to be lower yielding.

In livestock, the effects of climate change can be managed through physical modifications of environment, genetic development of breeds that are less sensitive to heat, and nutritional management.

It is possible to modify the microenvironment to enhance through scientific modification of animal houses. High temperature and/or humidity is mitigated through forced air movement. To improve the fertility of livestock during harsh summer, hormonal treatments are under trial. The process involves elevating post insemination blood progesterone, GnRH treatment at time of insemination to optimise insemination time, improvement of egg quality by elimination of aged follicles produced during heat stress and the use of timed AI and embryo transfer. To counter the effect of heat stress, it is important to manage the feeding management of livestock by changing the nutritional quality of feeds, feeding time and frequency.

Growth of livestock to India's food and nutritional security is of great significance. In India, the livestock production is a low-input-low output economy. India produces the largest volume of milk, eggs, meat and fish from this low-input-low-output production system.

India ranks first in milk production, accounting for 17 per cent of world production. During 2014/15, milk production was 141 mt, egg production was around 69.73 billion in 2013, while poultry meat production is estimated at 2.68 mt. Fisheries is an important source of livelihood and fish are an important source of protein. There are 14.4 million fishermen in the country. India ranks second in world fish production, contributing about 5.4 per cent of global fish production. Total fish production during 2013/14 is estimated at 9.45 mt with 6.10 mt coming from the inland sector and 3.35 mt from the marine sector.

With farmer centric policies, heavy investment by the government and private sector in agriculture and technology, it would be possible to meet the challenges of climate change to meet with the needs of improving productivity of agriculture and livestock and, of course, the food and nutritional security.

(The author is Chairman, Kwality Limited)