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So, is India's current account deficit under control?

So, is India's current account deficit under control?

India's trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports, for April to September this year fell to $80.12 billion from $91.81 billion in the same period last year.

Shweta Punj
India's twin deficits - fiscal and current account (CAD) - have been a cause for worry for nearly 30 months now, fuelled by a host of domestic and international factors. Global uncertainty, choppy policymaking and short-sighted decisions have weighed down the two key macroeconomic indicators.

So, now that the ballooning CAD (which occurs when spending on imports exceeds earnings from exports and foreign remittances) seems to be coming under control, and could even be lower than the government's estimate and target of $70 billion, there is some reason for hope.

India's trade deficit (the difference between imports and exports) for April to September this year fell to $80.12 billion from $91.81 billion in the same period last year. The trade balance for September is down to $6.76 billion from $17.15 billion last September.

Exports are up 11.15 per cent to $27.68 billion, from $24.9 billion in September 2012. Imports have come down 18.1 per cent to $34.44 billion. Oil imports are down 5.94 per cent to $13.19 billion, and non-oil imports are down 24.19 per cent to $21.24 billion from $28.02 billion in September 2012.

What's also significant is the sharp decline in gold and silver imports to $0.8 billion in September 2013, from $4.6 billion in September last year. Gold is the largest item in the country's non-essential imports bill and has often been seen as the main culprit in India's ballooning CAD story.

So far, in 2013, the government and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have taken aggressive measures to curb gold imports.

The RBI restricted them on a consignment basis by banks. A transaction tax of 0.01 per cent was imposed on non-agricultural futures contracts including precious metals. India's biggest jewellers' association asked members to stop selling gold bars and coins, and the import duty on gold was raised to 10 per cent.

But with the festival season nearly here, keeping gold imports and purchases low will be a challenge. Add to that the global uncertainty due to the US government shutdown and the insignificant uptick in manufacturing. Exporters still have reason to be nervous.

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Published on: Oct 09, 2013, 7:20 PM IST
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