India will continue to trail China for the next four years, according to the OECD-Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India . India's
growth is expected to moderate to 5.9 per cent, and China's is expected to grow at 7.7 per cent in 2014-2018. The forecast for India is much lower than OECD's projection of the overall growth of emerging Asia (Southeast Asian nations, China and India) during the same period, which it puts at 6.9 per cent.
The outlook says Indonesia is likely to be the fastest-growing ASEAN-6 economy with an average annual growth rate of six per cent in 2014-18, followed by the Philippines with 5.8 per cent. Real GDP growth in Malaysia and in Thailand is projected to increase by an annual 5.1 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively, led by domestic demand, especially in infrastructure investment and private consumption.
One of the key growth drivers will be the rise of the middle class-especially in India and China- members of which will be the big spenders on health-care, education, household durables, automobiles. The report points out that government policies and reforms to promote inclusive growth and drive sustainable growth in private consumption are essential.
The report states that investment growth, projected to be robust in Emerging Asia, will be supported by government infrastructure spending and private investment will also be key.
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