AI demand displaces non-AI roles: Economic Survey 2024 highlights need for broader skill set

In terms of the influence of AI and technology on jobs, the Economic Survey 2023-24 stated that the demand for AI skills by businesses negatively impacts the need for non-AI roles due to the displacement of high-skilled managerial positions and non-routine intellectual tasks. To cope with this situation, employees or job seekers will need skills beyond communication, collaboration, and presentation, such as analytical thinking and innovation, complex problem-solving, critical thinking, learning and self-development, technology design and programming, and resilience and adaptability to face the AI challenge.

The report further stated that the yearly net payroll additions to the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) more than doubled from 61.1 lakh in FY19 to 131.5 lakh in FY24, swiftly recovering from the pandemic, aided by the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana (ABRY). According to the survey report, EPFO membership numbers also grew by an impressive 8.4% CAGR between FY15 and FY24.

Currently, India’s workforce is estimated to be nearly 56.5 crore in 2022-23, as per the survey. According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) by the National Statistical Organisation, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), in terms of employment status of workers, 57.3% of the total workforce is self-employed, while 18.3% are unpaid workers in household enterprises. Casual labour comprises 21.8% of the total workforce, and regular wage/salaried workers make up 20.9% of the total workforce.

While more than 45% of the workforce is employed in agriculture, 11.4% is in manufacturing, 28.9% is in services, and 13% is in construction. The predominance of agriculture in providing employment to nearly half of the population, especially females, is both a challenge and an opportunity, as explained in the section on agro-processing in this chapter.

The economic survey explains that a surge in agriculture employment is partly due to reverse migration and the entry of women into the labour force in rural India. From a gender perspective, the overall female labour force participation rate has been rising for six years, from 23.3% in FY18 to 37% in FY23, driven mainly by the rising participation of rural women.

Citing the annual PLFS study, the unemployment rate in India has been declining sharply. Per the quarterly report of PLFS, the urban unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above declined to 6.7% in the quarter ending March 2024 from 6.8% in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year, accompanied by a rise in the WPR and LFPR.

Some of the key government initiatives and their success rates, as stated by the survey report, are:

• Launched in 2015, the National Career Service (NCS) Portal attracted 4.1 crore job seekers and 25.6 lakh employers by March 31, 2024. The initiative includes 407 Model Career Centres and over 46,000 job fairs, with a 52% increase in candidates shortlisted for jobs in FY24 compared to FY23, indicating a more competitive job market.
• The Atmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojna, by March 31, 2024, benefited 60.5 lakh individuals across 1.5 lakh establishments.
• The Prime Minister’s Employment Generation Programme (PMEGP), aimed at assisting entrepreneurs in setting up new units in the non-farm sector, generated employment for 37.46 lakh people between 2018 and 2024.