Why 56% of top economists believe 2025 will test global resilience like never before

The global economic landscape is entering 2025 under a cloud of uncertainty. Over half of the world’s leading chief economists (56%) expect a weakening of conditions, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists Outlook, while just 17% foresee improvement. The report underscores widening regional disparities and rising risks, demanding focused, strategic responses.

The United States stands out as a mixed bag. While 44% of economists anticipate strong short-term growth, buoyed by policy momentum and wage increases, nearly all predict soaring public debt (97%) and inflationary pressures (94%). This dichotomy mirrors broader concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. recovery amidst fiscal challenges.

Europe emerges as the weakest link for the third consecutive year. With 74% of economists expecting weak or very weak growth, the continent grapples with persistent economic malaise. Meanwhile, China's trajectory also falters, as subdued consumer demand and sluggish productivity curb its potential as a growth engine.

"The outlook paints a sobering picture," said Aengus Collins, Head of Economic Growth and Transformation at the World Economic Forum. "Economic fragmentation and policy contention pose significant challenges. It’s clear that collaboration is needed more than ever to navigate these turbulent times."

Despite intensifying economic headwinds, nearly half of chief economists (48%) still anticipate a rise in global trade volumes this year. However, protectionism looms large, with escalating trade tensions identified as the key disruptor. Regional trade realignments are also expected to accelerate, with 82% foreseeing a pivot toward services over goods in the coming years.

Fragmentation will further shape global economic dynamics. A striking 94% of respondents predict deeper divides in goods trade over the next three years, with 59% foreseeing similar trends in services. Barriers to labor mobility, technology, and data exchanges add to the strain, forcing businesses to restructure supply chains and prioritize regional operations.

The Chief Economists Outlook highlights the need for innovative policies and resilient strategies to address compounding economic pressures. As the World Economic Forum convenes its Annual Meeting 2025, the focus remains on fostering collaboration to navigate an era of uncertainty.